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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 11:33:04 GMT -8
Ok, it's finally night!
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 11:44:02 GMT -8
Is it?
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Post by witch1 on Jul 9, 2008 11:56:28 GMT -8
Yes, it is.
Days start and finish at the times specified by the rules, whether or not Pleo is around to post the Dawn and Dusk. The Night has already started.
So, thoughts? Who gets the protection? Who do we investigate? Names, people!
We have 22 candidates for investigation. Who shall we go for?
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Post by witch1 on Jul 9, 2008 11:58:57 GMT -8
Sorry, 21. We've lost both Pedescribe and CoG. He didn't vote. (Redwing did, so he was saved.)
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Post by Pleonast on Jul 9, 2008 12:28:45 GMT -8
Yep, Night starts with or without my official pronouncement. You have until Friday noon.
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 13:42:19 GMT -8
I really right now have vibing issues:
1. I don't know if we can trust CiaS, but if we did know 100%, we ought to trust him. 2. I think Peekers and Oredigger both are VERY suspicious peoples toDay, and could deserve an investigation. 3. I think Hal is the Vig. Just a complete out there thought, but there it is. 4. I'm worried if anyone was to target a Witch, it'd be Me tonight. (as If I were in Nanook's shoes, I'd be pretty irked at my suggestion for toDay, then again, his response was EXCELLENT and he's gonna be a tough one to take down it seems).
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 13:42:59 GMT -8
1. I don't know if we can trust CiaS, but if we did know 100%, we ought to trust him. Sorry meant to say "Protect Him" at the end, not Trust.
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 13:47:07 GMT -8
On dealing Nanook Further:
One way we MIGHT try to trap him at the expense of trying to only lose ONE of us is to perhaps call him out. Say that there's a witch among the 3 Dead in the morning someday (NOT Tommorrow, but just in the future), and force him/goad him into trying to pick which one it is.
-The best way to do this is when there is NO Witch killed in the pool. Thusly if we forced him to pick and he picks someone that only will out one person as being the witch (whoever calls him out on it), rather than being forced to call him out when one of us has DIED (and risk the chance of him picking correctly- as he could just try to fig. it out by guessing smartly- if 3 died, and one of us say a witch was in there, and he knew the other was a compatriot of his, then his chances go to 50-50 between the others or something like that).
So I don't want us to wait till one of us dies for him to do it. However, If one of us DOES die, we should simply say nothing, give him the time he asks, and then when it turns up a witch, we lynch him. This buys US time as well to "pretend" we're still witches (and use up our investigations before anyone catches wise to us).
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 16:07:02 GMT -8
My gut feeling is to investigate Oredigger to either condemn or exhonorate him as it looks like he is going to be in the hot seat tomorrow.
I had to go back and look at the rules to make sure there are only 3 witches in the game because Nanook has played witch so well. According to the rules there are either 0 or 3, so we know we are it.
I think tomorrow one of us should call out Nanoonk as scum and reveal our results on both story and tonights investigatee. Especially if one of us dies tonight. Coming up with a trap plan and trying to follow it is going to be very tricky. Whenever we decide to out him I think it should be straightforward and decisive.
More reading and more thoughts to come.
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 16:26:23 GMT -8
My other thought about the investigation is to pick someone who is flying under the radar that we just don't know much about, that is unlikely to be nightkilled. Oredigger may well be picked off tonight. Peeker certainly has piqued my interest, but would a scum act like that? Is it WIFOM?
My picks in no particular order: Oredigger - lots of suspicion Peekercpa - interesting style Drainbead - under the radar Cookies - under radar Diomedes - under radar
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 20:44:31 GMT -8
Here again is my worry- Oredigger is a likely suspect. But I don't see him as a power role or sort like that in a pro-town manner, nor... well crudely put- I don't see him as a valuable asset to the town. I'd be willing to see him lynched for info.
I again am in favor of investigating a "major" player.
This time though, I'm starting to think- Maybe we should Protect AND Investigate CiaS?
And I like your ideas on Calling out Nanook, W3, but I don't think it should be done just Yet. Right now there's many of us, and hopefully we witches can stay alive longer. If one of us dies toNight, we should TOTALLY be quiet about it- as his method WILL buy us time at least.
I'm thinking though Day 4 we might have some Witch Burning stakes to do. And if that's the case, well Hockey, no offense or anything- I'd like to be the one to call him out rather than you. Same with you Mhaye- You've been pretty under the radar, Mhaye, and I'd like YOU to stay that way. Hockey, I'd just rather it be me than you, because I'm a bit more flexible. I'd like to see if we can out him without having to force our hand and lose 2 witches, and I think I might be better at trying to do that. But right now, I don't want to try anything against him. If he could d**n himself I'd prefer that, but right now he's playing BRILLIANTLY and I'd rather not take him on yet. NOW if a Seer shows up and tries to confirm him and he turns out to look town, then we're REALLY be in trouble, but it'd be the Head Wolf we've got imitating us at least.
But right now, my fear is- CiaS. Should we be trusting him or not. As someone pointed out, the Brewha pick is REALLY convenient. And he's WAY better than that normally.
I'd like to at least consider investigating:
CiaS -The Man's a Suspcious Cop. CON: He's ALSO really likely to get killed by the wolves if he's telling the truth. It's a RISKY RISKY thing to investigate him (that's why if we did him, It'd prolly have to be the works- protect AND Investigate).
Peekers (only cuz he's gonna slide under the radar while everyone focuses on Oredigger tommorrow)
Hal- this one is purely for OUR sakes in that if we out him as Town, and he IS the Vig, hopefully he won't kill us. He's already got me in his list of 5 suspects. That's what I'm worried about, as if Peds is a Wolf instead of a Cabal, he's right. There's likely to be another Wolf in that list of 4 (since we know I'm NOT Scum on that List).
Dio- He's a major player, and he'd be like Storyteller in that it'd be good to know who he's playing for. NAF- See Above.
-If I were the wolves, I'd want to take out Storyteller tonight (freebie, and an unlikely person to be protected), OR I'd take out CiaS ASAP if he's a treat (assuming he's not on their team) -If I were the Cabal and had a kill- I'd want to take out Nanook. But he's "protected" so I'd take out the people near him, in hopes of catching the other witches. To me, it feels like Me and Dio. (assuming he's not on their team) - If I were the Vampire- :shrug: I'd kill randomly. But I'd probably kill a high talker, and someone that'd cause alot of confusion if they died. Maybe Oredigger for fun just to mess with the Town, and play off the "vig" sorta role claim.
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 20:52:03 GMT -8
My gut feeling is to investigate Oredigger to either condemn or exhonorate him as it looks like he is going to be in the hot seat tomorrow. As an "investigative" role, i find its actually more valuable to create a "voting bloc" of Trusted individuals. I know this only because this is what TOTALLY f**ked me over in the Simpletown game, the Cop had posted a trust list of about 4-5 players, so that when I joined into that game as scum, I already had a daunting task of having to try to off those players before I could even THINK of the other players. That's what we should strive for as witches. If we find a condemned man is innocent, it's going to take nothing short of one (Or TWO of us because of Nanook) of us to claim. And if we out ourselves, one is dying at night, and then, we're going to have to stick with the Protects only or the investigations only for the rest of the game, as we're down a Witch. That's alll a TERRIBLE price just to save one man. -If we find out he's guilty. Well, great, he's already got a huge target, and it's an easy lynch. But again, a wasted investigation. Because the long term issue is Nanook. We're gonna have to go up vs. him, and we'll need evidence of OUR Witchery. The fact that he and us picked the SAME target to call out, sucks. He wins that one (Storyteller). So we can't just say "hey, we checked story, and it's true he's town" Because then it Looks bad on US. So we're gonna need 2-3 trusted LIVING Townies list or a d**n big guilty suspect in order to out Nanook. -Because if we claim, and then then say X is scum. All that will be said is, well you're a Wolf And you just said X is scum too, and now you're trying to kill off our REAL Witch, Nanook. And we'll be f**ked in that case, unless we basically out another of us, or ALL THREE of us. That's what I want to AVOID. The BEST way to out nanook is for him to keep having to give results, and if one of us dies, that's what's gonna end it for him. But until then, we should NOT try to provoke him. That's why it's gonna be TOUGH to take Nanners out. So in the meanwhile we should use this to our advantage- hopefully the other groups will focus on Nanners and who's interacting with HIM positively or negatively to try to find the other witches. But that's why we should avoid wasting our investigations on "risky" players. (which i know also includes CiaS in there as well).
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 21:08:09 GMT -8
I'm only slightly offended.
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 21:18:22 GMT -8
I agree with much of what you are saying, which is why I said maybe we should pick players who are unlikely to be night killed and are under the radar. They may stay that way longer allowing us to amass a list. Eventually Nanook will screw up.
I made note of a post by Oredigger in his thread. Basically he said Nanook will screw up. The only way he could know that is if he know's Nookie isn't a witch. He would know that only if he had some investigation or if he's on the same team as Nanook. I didn't want to call him on it obviously because I didn't want Nanook to know I knew he isn't a witch. And I didn't want the rest of the town to think I was trying to OUT a witch. I think he may have said it as a purposeful slip to get a reaction from one of us.
So I'm all for seeing Oredigger swing. If he's not scum, I'll be suprised.
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 21:19:36 GMT -8
The current player list
01. ShadowFacts 02. Koldanar 04. cckerberos 06. Hal Briston 07. MHaye - Witch 08. storyteller0910 - Magician, verified Town 09. Zsofia 10. Oredigger77 11. Drain Bead 12. CatInASuit - claimed Detective 13. RoOsh - Witch 14. peekercpa 15. Diomedes 16. DiggitCamara 17. Nanook of the North Shore - scum! claimed Witch 18. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies 19. dotchan 20. Hockey Monkey - Witch 22. NAF1138 23. fluiddruid 26. Redwing 27. One and Only Wanderers 28. Hawkeyeop 30. Pollux Oil 31. Omi no Kami
25. Darth Sensitive - Lynched Day One - International Cabalist 24. NaturalBlondChap - Killed Night One 21. brewha - claimed Coroner - Killed Night One 29. Santo Rugger - Killed Night One 03. pedescribe - tried to kill Storyteller, lynched Day 2 05. CoG888 - modkilled Day 2
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 21:22:49 GMT -8
Unknowns
Shadowfacts Koldonar cckerberos Hal Briston Zsofia Oredigger Drain Bead CatInASuit peekercpa Diomedes DiggitCamara Cookies Dotchan NAF fluiddruid Redwing OAOW Hawkeyeop Pollux Omi no Kami
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Post by witch3 on Jul 9, 2008 21:27:42 GMT -8
Shadowfacts Koldonar cckerberos Hal Briston Zsofia - plays a lot like me, accuse first and ask questions later Oredigger - likely to be lynched tomorrow Drain Bead CatInASuit - I get the feeling he is telling the truth peekercpa - very hard for me to feel out Diomedes DiggitCamara Cookies Dotchan NAF fluiddruid Redwing OAOW Hawkeyeop Pollux Omi no Kami
I'm ashamed to say I don't really have a good feel for anyone I didn't make a note on. What to you guys have on any of these folks?
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Post by witch2 on Jul 9, 2008 22:49:37 GMT -8
I'm suspicious of:
Zsofia -She's crafty. Just gives me crafty vibes. Peeker (as I think he's hiding something) Hal- Vig Vibes or at least, he's Out to possible get me. Fluid- I'm curious about this person. As they're a good player, but they're staying back. Not what I expected. Pollux- he's been REALLY silent. Real life issues? Not sure. But he's RARELY killed, he's a great person if you want to target a lurker, as he's like Mhaye in his playing style, but often, he tends to be more defensive of players. A great person to check out if amassing a "trust" list, as he's not likely to say something to get himself killed early. OAOW- I'm getting a scummy vibe from him, but its less than ore, peeker, and others, but he ALWAYS gives off a scummy vibe. Could be one to see. Omi- I'm curious about this one.
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Post by witch1 on Jul 10, 2008 1:50:55 GMT -8
One of the problems with Nanook's position is that he's going to have to come up with investigation results. In this game, the probability of a given player being nonTown is very high, because of the three factions. Last game it was 45½% (10 players out of the starting 22 were not Town).
If Nanook has no source of alignment results, he's going to get it wrong, and sooner rather than later. Either he'll call someone as Town and they show up as not to be, or he calls a nonTown faction and we lynch to find that he lied.
However, let's bear in mind that he could have some source of alignment information. This source might be a secret power (and we can be fairly sure Nanook has his faction's secret power; it's that inconsistency that brought a third of the Town down on his head before he claimed) or, he might possibly be the Seer.
(This is something I've just thought of. If we out him as a liar, he can claim "I'm actually the Seer. I claimed Witch rather than my own role to fool the killing scum into thinking my covenmates would be protecting me."
The fact that the Seer gets role rather than faction isn't really a problem. If he's told "Magician" or "Alpha Wolf" he can work out which faction the player is in (and if he gets something not listed it's a good bet that the player is a Cabalist).
W2, I'm not sure you should be the one to counterclaim Nanook. W3 has been overtly suspicious of the claim, myself a less so; you've suggested ways to confirm himself (a tool we can use, by the way).
The problem with choosing one of us is what happens if another comes under pressure and has to claim? Then we have two outed Witches, which (at this stage of the game) we don't want. Let's play it low again Today; give him more rope to hang himself with. If one of us has to come out and claim under pressure, then at least only one of us stands exposed.
My attention is still split at the moment, because Apocalypse Then! is running towards a conclusion. But I'll dig through one or two players.
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Post by witch1 on Jul 10, 2008 2:05:37 GMT -8
I actually came in to post a linky to CiaS's post laying out the known voting information. Might be a useful reference. Storyteller may now survive a couple of Nights. The scum don't want to waste time killing a known powerless townie when there are people out there who can hurt them. Right now we have 25 living players. That's plenty for the Wolves to hide in, let alone the smaller groups. There will come a time when one of the scum groups eliminates him to avoid shrinking the pool they can hide in, but I don't think it'll be Tonight. I favour investigating a heavy hitter at this stage of the game, but I need to think about who. Can we all try and put suggestions up sometime today? I have to attend to rl for a while. I'll be back later.
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